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Marat
Marat
Replying to @cotton

Check developer threads on Reddit, Levels or HN, for example. Even many senior engineers with years of experience have found the market to be tough.

Jamie Sigadel
Replying to @outofelement @cotton

The tough job market isn't *just* because of AI.. For example, companies know they can get away with annual layoffs now. It's not a huge surprise that developers are on the chopping block along with everyone else. They're usually the most expensive people 🤷🏻‍♀️

Marat
Replying to @jsiggy @cotton

Didn't say it was the only factor but it's a really big factor. You wouldn't fire people you need. Even if they're expensive. The truth is that even things like Copilot have 10x developer productivity. This is according to my developer friends themselves.

Marat
Replying to @jsiggy @cotton

My point was that o3 is a whole new level of AI. With Copilot (which has already 10x'ed dev productivity) you still need to really know what you're doing. o3 will likely allow anyone who has a product idea create a product. No years of tech expertise necessary.

Gregory Cotton
Replying to @outofelement @jsiggy

i would agree it makes just starting to create a product more accessible but this is different than it’s ability to outright replace workers for a big tech company, for example.

Gregory Cotton
Replying to @outofelement @jsiggy

workers as in devs, in the above post^ this is from the perspective i have developed working on ai and automation tools in an engineering/tech lead role day to day, fwiw. these are tools that can disrupt no doubt, but the impact they currently have is often overstated imo.

Marat
Replying to @cotton @jsiggy

Currently, yes. As I said, Copilot helps an engineer be much more productive but you still need to have engineering skills and experience. o3 sounds like a completely different beast. We'll know more soon.

Marat
Replying to @cotton

Doesn't matter. o3 is a massive leap in reasoning skills. Very different from currently existing tools. People just like to convince themselves that reality they don't like isn't happening.

Marat
Replying to @cotton

There's a huge impact already on the developer market now, before o3. Just ask any developer who has been looking for a new job in the past year. They used to have it really sweet. Two weeks and a new job paying much more. Very different now.

Gregory Cotton
Replying to @outofelement

i’m not denying the capability of o3. simply saying that the total replacement of devs that people dream of/catastrophize about is a ways off yet. i also think that putting the lion’s share of blame for dev jobs drying up on ai is an incomplete picture of what’s happening.

Marat
Replying to @cotton

I think people just don't want to face the reality of where this is going. Even if o3 doesn't lead to full replacement of devs (and all knowledge workers, for that matter) it's only a matter of time. And not very much time.

Marat
Replying to @cotton

Governments will have to figure out a completely different way of managing society once we enter the post work era. And it's not as far off as most people think. Andrew Yang got laughed at by a lot of normies but that's what always happens to those who are a bit ahead.